Where is the crown of investment
Whenever there is a pivotal moment in an investment decision, the image from decades ago is always reminiscent. When defending the master's thesis, the first questions asked by the judges are:
"Where is the crown of investment?"
The student replied without hesitation: "Information asymmetry." ”
The judge-teacher said, "You have already got an iron bracelet, but where is the crown?" You touch your head up? ”
The judge teacher temporarily turned off the recording, gave 2 minutes to think, and then turned it back on.
The student replied: "Credit leverage." ”
The judge teacher said, "You got another 1kg copper necklace, and then you touched your head?" ”
The judge teacher turned off the recording again, gave another 2 minutes to think, and turned it back on.
The face was enough, not only 2 minutes, but the student still couldn't think of a better answer.
The judge teacher sighed: "Economists generally believe that the crown of investment is difficult to realize. ”
At this time, I became enlightened and looked upwards...
Everything works together
In the first half of 2021, the bubble in the secondary market induced the primary market to follow Pride. As a partner of New Henglida Capital and a member of the investment committee, Xiaobian led the biomedical team to visit a start-up project company in the direction of computational pharmacy. The founder is too lazy to talk about the business plan, and answers questions absent-mindedly and sloppily. Fundamental analysis, the founder team of this project company majored in computer science from famous foreign schools, no international big pharmaceutical work experience, no international big pharmaceutical cooperation orders, technical barriers are difficult to define the subdivision track super first-class. In addition to being endorsed by the big coffee fund investment, where does pride come from? (There are no reports of the project's subsequent huge successful financing and product pipeline being endorsed by a third party, and the actual story that happened later is far less wonderful than the computational pharmacy track seed round alpha molecule project that Xiaobian personally led to invest).
It is already a grace that the market mania urges us to experience such embarrassment, and the projects that small and medium-sized funds are optimistic about not only cannot get the quota, but also have been politely rejected many times in on-site interviews...
The drill looks up and remembers the saying "patience breeds sophistication, sophistication breeds hope." Further up, if you believe that everything works together...
There is only one conclusion: the primary market of venture capital needs to be disciplined, and the primary market investment projects that have been IPO must accelerate the realization rate of the secondary market.
688389.SH Pumen Technology Precise Monetization
Grade 688389. SH Pumen Technology Annual Report [Chairman's Note]: 2020 is an extraordinary year, the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic caused a global comprehensive crisis... The company's listing is not our goal, but an important milestone in the growth of our Pumen Technology... There is a long way to go, trembling, like walking on thin ice... We respect the Pumen Technology team and are reluctant to leave. After carefully investigating and analyzing the fundamental information of Pumen Technology, especially the phased nodes of valuation flexibility, Xiaobian personally led the design of the exit plan and emergency plan.
Xiaobian personally issued a trading order, from June 2021, 6 to June 21, 2021, starting at 6.28 yuan, the highest price is 30.00 yuan, and the median price is 31.80 yuan. Screenshot of historical transaction details:
Awe
New colleague induction training asked: Mr. Yongfa, look at the platform around June 2021, 6, the platform broke upward, according to the textbook should be bought, why do you have to sell and place orders in advance at 28:9? A: The selling plan is carefully prepared in advance, and the 15-degree ascending channel is not a platform. There are real and false upward breakouts, and institutional disks have the motivation to reverse the true breakthrough into a false breakthrough, especially when the overall capital market is expected to weaken in stages. Imagine what would have happened if we didn't have this so-called upward lure? Isn't it leading the market to panic killing?
Q: How did you know the highest price in advance? A: You asked this question from the perspective of being a habitual retail investor. The price of the secondary market is just a true reflection of the power of bullish and bearish in the market. Retail investors often guess the price, but institutional investors can instantly break the balance of power between bulls and bears with the chips in their hands, and they can legally guide the price or even determine the price trend at a certain time. From knowing and transforming into guidance and decision, the game pattern is like Grandma Liu entering the Grand View Garden.
Q: If the chips are a little bigger, would you still recommend this price? A: There is generally an emergency plan in the implementation of the cash-out plan, which can be dynamically adjusted. The price of 30 yuan has comprehensively evaluated the normal turnover rate and chip size, if the chips are several times more, the power contrast tilt of the long and short sides needs to be balanced by the price discount in the secondary market, otherwise it can only be unrequited love.
Q: Is this case a classic case in the industry? A: From the K-line chart of Pumen Technology in the following two years, it seems that the conclusion of the so-called classic case can be drawn. But you must be in awe of the market, if the chips are orders of magnitude different, the average transaction price is not classic. Moreover, in mature capital markets, if the maturity date of venture capital in the primary market is approaching, the long-term optimism of a target but addicted to swing conjecture cannot speculate the essence of Buffett's value investment. The overall literacy highlighted by the M&A story of Pumen Technology in the past two years is difficult to frame it with a certain price.
