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Is the hyped photovoltaic TOPCon technology route facing new challenges from HPBC?
2023/08/25
LONGi Green Energy officially announced the company's newly developed photovoltaic cell technology HPBC (Hybrid Passivated Back Contact) on November 11, and released Hi-MO 2 module products based on HPBC technology.
At the press conference, Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of LONGi Green Energy, Dr. Li Hua, Vice President of Academia Sinica, and Dr. Lv Jun, President of Product Management Center, jointly contributed to LONGi's new module Hi-According to LONGi Green Energy, HPBC full name hybrid passivation back contact battery, the current mass production efficiency has exceeded 6%, and the efficiency of the PRO version of superimposed hydrogen passivation technology has reached 25.25%. There is no grid on the front of the battery, and the multi-layer anti-reflection coating greatly enhances the light absorption capacity, and the multi-layer passivation technology reduces the recombination of impurities and greatly improves the conversion efficiency. MO 3 unveiled. It is reported that HPBC is the abbreviation of composite passivated back contact battery, which is a new generation of high-efficiency battery technology characterized by no grid on the front of the battery.

The battle for the mainstream route of next-generation photovoltaic cell technology
At present, the mainstream photovoltaic cell technology route is still PERC, and the TOPCon technology route was previously regarded as the "replacement" of PERC, and related concept stocks were continuously speculated by the secondary market between July and August this year. However, Li Zhenguo, president of LONGi Green Energy, bluntly said that "the TOPCon technology route is a transitional technology".
It is understood that the theoretical efficiency of single-crystal silicon cells is 29.4%, the laboratory limit efficiency is 28%, and the mass production efficiency is 26%-27%, while the mass production efficiency of TOPCon cells on the market is generally 24.5%~24.7%.
The HPBC battery thrown by LONGi Green Energy has pushed the mass production efficiency to more than 25% in one fell swoop, and has formed a reverse surpass on the TOPCon battery. LONGi Green Energy believes that due to factors such as high equipment investment and high consumption of low-temperature silver paste, LONGi Green Energy believes that the economy of HJT needs time to break through.
Since the beginning of this year, PV track players have greatly expanded TOPCon production capacity. According to incomplete statistics from CITIC Securities, as of September 2022, the market has put into operation more than 9GW of TOPCon battery production capacity, more than 33GW of production capacity under construction and about to start construction, and a total planned production capacity of more than 147GW in the next two years, and not only includes the large-scale expansion of mainstream leading manufacturers JinkoSolar, JA Technology, Trina Solar, but also new entrants such as Lingda Co., Ltd., Mubang Hi-Tech, and Huangshi Group have strongly entered.
As for HPBC production capacity, LONGi Green Energy revealed that its Xixian base was originally planned to be 15GW, and through capacity increase, the overall production capacity is planned to reach nearly 30GW; The 4GW project in Taizhou is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of this year and reach full production in the first half of next year; The Ordos project is mainly aimed at ground power station technology, and equipment will be installed at the end of the second quarter of next year, and the technical route has not yet been fully determined.
At present, all mainstream manufacturers are looking for a technical route to transition to HJT, TOPCon is a choice, LONGi's HPBC is actually one, how to control the cost of mass production of the two, will determine which one is more popular in the market.

(Image source: LONGi Green Energy)
New demand for distributed photovoltaics
Since this product is LONGi's first exclusive component for distributed users, it also considers the "aesthetic" needs of distributed users. "In the next stage of product development, in addition to technical persistence and innovation, while adhering to the bottom line of our products, we must think about our future application and direction." Lv Jun said that in the era of global green transformation, "we found that the construction sector accounts for 1/3 of all the sources of carbon emissions." The demand for photovoltaic in buildings, we believe that in addition to quality, there is also the need for architectural aesthetics. ”
In the era of distribution, product design will be more important than before. Zeng Duohong, co-director of Soochow Securities Research Institute, said that distributed photovoltaics are not installed in China at present, so it believes that the development of the distributed photovoltaic market has just begun, and the penetration rate is extremely low. In the past, photovoltaic products were relatively homogeneous, and products for distributed photovoltaics were not rich enough.
According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network statistics, domestic polysilicon output in September was 9,7 tons, an increase of nearly 62% from August, and domestic polysilicon output in October was 8,23 tons, a further increase of 10% month-on-month, and the rapid increase in supply also promoted the loosening of industrial chain prices;
Wu Dillon, senior investment manager of New Value Capital, believes that under the background of polysilicon volume and improvement of supply and demand structure, domestic integrated module manufacturers will accelerate the launch of modules based on next-generation battery technology, such as LONGi's Hi-MO 6 modules based on HPBC cells, Trina Solar and JinkoSolar's high-efficiency N-type modules based on TopCon cells. With the decline in polysilicon prices in the upstream of the industrial chain, it is expected to accelerate the expansion of domestic module production and release production capacity, directly benefiting photovoltaic downstream links such as cells and auxiliary materials.
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